27 Mar The Weekend Starts Here...
We’re entering day 11 of the lockdown here in France. In the last two weeks I’ve left the house just once, to do a bit of shopping. I’m beginning to realise that lockdown is actually pretty much ‘normal life’ for me 😉
Lots to share this week.
If it takes three years for markets to recover from their losses to date, that implies an expected return of 14% per annum if you are buying equities now. At five years it’s 8% per annum, equivalent to long term historic returns. A New Framework for Investing Amid Financial Panic [ Nick Maggiulli 3 min read]
“Panic buying and selling is primarily a behavioural phenomenon – what are its main causes?” Long Toilet Paper / Short Equities – Why We Panic Buy and Sell [ Joe Wiggins 3 min read]
“I don’t say this to make anybody who sold feel bad, investing is difficult for all of us. I only say this to remind you all in or all out decisions should never be made, ever.” What Do You Do Now? [Michael Batnick 1 min read]
“During dramatic sell-offs, like what we’ve experienced so far in 2020, the temptation to rip up otherwise sound investment plans grows greater by the day.” The Itch For Action [Brendan Mullooly 2 min read]
“Uncertainty is a fact of life for all of us. The question is what do we do about it?” The Prescription For Living In A Time Of Uncertainty [Robin Powell 3 min read]
“For everyone who is overworked, someone else has little to do but wait.” Why the crisis is a test of our capacity to adapt [ Tim Harford 3 min read]
“Even if you had known this news in advance, you could not have predicted the market reaction. Which is why we’re a rules-based firm rather than a firm that relies on narratives. This is one of the primary lessons we educate clients on. And sometimes we have to relearn it ourselves.” It doesn’t always have to make sense [ Josh Brown 2 min read]
I couldn’t have put it better myself. In spite of increasing bad news this week, this is what we’ve seen in world stock markets:
I’m not a gambler but I’d be willing to bet a considerable amount that anyone who failed to rebalance when markets fell sufficiently for it to be prudent to do so, or who panicked out of the markets and is sitting in cash, missed this bounce. Next week, markets might plummet again. Who knows? But this is why we are just sticking to our process. Because nobody knows.
“Underlying all of this rhetoric is the evidence that a pandemic – probably flu based and likely to cause mortality at the levels we’re seeing with Covid-19 – is not an outlier.” Pandemiconomics [ PsyFi Blog 2 min read]
“Are crowds collectively “smarter” than any one individual?” Are Markets Wise — or Probabilistic? [ Barry Ritholtz 2 min read]
“What will stay with us, psychologically and culturally, long after we return to work?” Wounds Heal, Scars Last [ Morgan Housel 3 min read]
The companies which have been hit the hardest by the global pandemic. The ‘BEACH’ stocks [ Visual Capitalist Infographic]
“Now is as good a time as any to provide some reminders to those investors who may be experiencing their first bout of extreme market volatility.” Surviving Your Very First Market Crash [Ben Carlson 3 min read]
Clap for carers: millions applaud NHS staff on coronavirus frontlines [1:47 video]. I have to say, this brought tears to my eyes.
And finally, because we all need a laugh at times like this. If you’re having a bad time dealing with the lockdown, remember, there is always someone worse off than you. 40 Photos Of People Having A Worse Quarantine Than You
I hope you have the best weekend you can. It’s forecast to be lovely here, so I’ll try and spend some time outdoors. Never have I been so glad to have the outdoor space we have. I can’t begin to imagine what it must be like to be cooped up in a tiny apartment.